Friday Rundown: September Delivers AED 50.78 Billion, Nine Months Hit AED 574 Billion, Tenants Are Moving as Rents Fall 15 Percent, and Meraas Commits AED 1 Billion to Nad Al Sheba

This week in Dubai real estate.

The week of September 28 to October 2 closed the books on the third quarter and delivered the full September data in the same breath. The numbers are significant, the rental market story is one of the most practically relevant pieces of data published all year for tenants and landlords alike, and Meraas moved decisively on one of Dubai’s most in-demand family communities. Here is the complete picture.

September Delivers AED 50.78 Billion: The Market’s Strongest Month Since April

Full September 2026 data published by the Dubai Land Department on October 1 confirmed AED 50.78 billion in total real estate transactions across 16,490 deals across the month. Direct property sales accounted for AED 29.66 billion across 11,430 transactions, with mortgages adding AED 16.79 billion and gift transfers contributing AED 4.33 billion.

Within the sales breakdown, residential units led at 9,744 transactions, with buildings at 777 and land at 910. On the off-plan versus ready split, off-plan accounted for 65.4 percent of transactions by count but only 46 percent of sales value at AED 13.63 billion, while ready property produced a disproportionately large share of value at AED 16.03 billion across 3,955 transactions. That divergence, a pattern that has run throughout 2026, confirms that buyers of completed stock are paying more per transaction on average than off-plan purchasers, and that the secondary market is recovering its value contribution even as off-plan continues to dominate by volume.

Business Bay led all areas by total sales value for September, confirming its continued position as the city’s highest-volume commercial and residential transaction district. The September result makes it the strongest single month for Dubai property since April and reinforces the seasonal pattern of Q4 being the market’s most active period.

September 2026 at a Glance

Source: Dubai Land Department data published via Emirates 24/7, October 1 2026. Verify all figures against primary DLD records before publication.

Nine Months In: AED 574 Billion, the Second-Highest Total in Market History

The nine-month cumulative figure published alongside September’s data is the number that defines 2026’s market character. Between January and September 2026, Dubai recorded AED 574.12 billion across 165,018 transactions, the second-highest nine-month sales value in the history of the Dubai real estate market, behind only the same period in 2025. Total property sales across the nine months reached AED 379.4 billion, also the second-highest figure on record.

The context matters here as it has throughout the year. A nine-month total that is the second-best in market history, sitting behind a period that now looks like an outlier peak driven by a unique convergence of post-conflict recovery, visa reform momentum, and record inflows, is a market performing at a structurally elevated level rather than one in retreat. The year’s trajectory from here, through October and November which historically rank as the two highest-volume months in any Dubai property calendar, will determine whether 2026 closes as one of the market’s genuinely exceptional years.

Tenants Are Switching Homes as New Lease Rents Fall Up to 15 Percent

The most practically significant story of the week for residents, landlords, and investors came from a fäm Properties analysis of DLD tenancy registrations published this week, which confirmed a fundamental shift in tenant behaviour across July and August 2026.

New leases exceeded renewals by 633 contracts in July, the first month since January 2023, when the available data set began, that new contracts outnumbered renewals. Renewals had led new leases for 36 consecutive months before that. August widened the gap further to 2,139 contracts. The reason is straightforward: asking rents on new leases in mid-market and prime residential districts have been falling, and tenants are responding rationally by moving to capture the saving.

The fäm Properties analysis found tenants securing comparable apartments at rents as much as 15.3 percent below January 2026 levels for the same building and unit type. Renewal rents, by contrast, fell by only approximately 1 percent over the same period. The differential between what a new tenant can negotiate and what an existing tenant pays on renewal is the sharpest it has been in several years, and tenants are acting on it.

For landlords, this is the clearest data prompt of the year to take a hard look at renewal pricing strategy. A tenant who leaves takes their predictable income with them. A void period at current market conditions, where new tenants are negotiating discounts of up to 15 percent against your January asking rent, costs more than a proactive renewal concession would have. For tenants currently on a renewal cycle, this week’s data confirms that the negotiating environment is materially in your favour and worth using.

The Switching Trend at a Glance

Source: fäm Properties analysis of DLD tenancy registrations, published week of September 28 2026. Verify before publication.

Meraas Awards AED 1 Billion Contract for Nad Al Sheba Gardens Phase 7

The development story of the week came from Meraas, which awarded a contract worth AED 1 billion to GCC Contracting for the construction of Phase 7 of Nad Al Sheba Gardens. The phase will deliver 272 new homes comprising 130 villas ranging from four to seven bedrooms and 142 three-bedroom townhouses, with completion scheduled for Q2 2028.

The AED 1 billion contract value sits well above the AED 690 million Meraas awarded for Phase 4 of the same community last year, reflecting both the rising cost of quality construction materials and the premium nature of the product being delivered. The Phase 7 contract also covers pool houses, essential utilities, and infrastructure works within the development.

Nad Al Sheba Gardens is positioned approximately 10 minutes from Downtown Dubai with direct access links to the Meydan Racetrack and Dubai International Airport, placing it within the family residential corridor that has been among the most resilient in the city through 2026’s broader volume moderation. The community includes walking, running, and cycling tracks, children’s play areas, multi-sport facilities, swimming pools, yoga spaces, and retail and dining at Nad Al Sheba Gardens Mall. The Phase 7 villa range, from four to seven bedrooms, directly addresses the buyer preference shift confirmed by data earlier this month showing that 50 percent of Dubai villa buyers are now searching for four bedrooms or more.

Simultaneously, Meraas confirmed that groundworks have commenced on City Walk Crestlane, a new development within the City Walk district. The two announcements in a single week from the same developer signal a deliberate acceleration across both urban and suburban segments of the Dubai residential market as Q4 begins.

The Investor Takeaway

September’s AED 50.78 billion and the nine-month AED 574 billion cumulative total confirm that 2026 has delivered one of the most substantial real estate years in Dubai’s history by any measure other than the direct comparison to 2025’s outlier peak. That framing matters for positioning: this is a market performing at historically elevated levels, not one that has fallen from a base of normality.

The tenant switching data is this week’s most actionable intelligence for anyone managing a rental asset. The gap between new lease market rates and renewal rents is now wide enough that tenants are moving to capture it at scale, breaking a three-year consecutive renewals trend in a single month. Landlords who price renewals at or above the new lease market rate are now more likely to lose a tenant than retain one. The strategic response is a proactive renewal conversation at a realistic price, which in most communities means accepting a modest reduction against January asking rents rather than defending a number the market is already pricing through.

Meraas committing AED 1 billion to 272 new villas and townhouses at Nad Al Sheba, with a 2028 completion, confirms that well-capitalised developers with access to premium land in established corridors are not pausing for the market to clarify. They are building through it.

Whether you want to understand what this week’s data means for your rental strategy, your portfolio, or a property you are considering selling as Q4 opens, our team is available for a private consultation or complimentary valuation.

Contact us at info@edwardsandtowers.com or visit edwardsandtowers.com.